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Early-season game predictions

USC vs. Southern Miss – Thursday
The Gamecocks didn’t receive any favors when North Carolina bailed out on USC to play LSU in Atlanta. ESPN officials helped USC land Southern Miss as a replacement, arguably a tougher opening-game draw for the Gamecocks than N.C. State the past two seasons.
The Golden Eagles were picked by most preseason magazines to win their division in Conference USA, and coach Larry Fedora has talked about surprising the Gamecocks on national TV. But unless Southern Miss improves defensively (25.8 points and 261 passing yards per game in 2009), USC will win its 11th consecutive opener.
Prediction: USC 24, Southern Miss 13
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USC vs. Georgia – Sept. 11
The early matchup with the Bulldogs usually is a good gauge for USC. The Gamecocks had a chance to win in Athens last year, rolling up 427 yards on a night when quarterback Stephen Garcia attempted 53 passes. But Garcia’s final throw was knocked down in the end zone, allowing Georgia to hold on for a 41-37 victory.
Georgia’s defense should be better under first-year coordinator Todd Grantham, the former Dallas Cowboys assistant who installed a 3-4 scheme. And though the Bulldogs return 10 offensive starters, the lone newcomer — quarterback Aaron Murray — will be making his first SEC start in a hostile stadium. In a high-noon matchup, Garcia gets his gunslinger’s revenge.
Prediction: USC 27, Georgia 20
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USC vs. Furman – Sept. 18
USC went a long time without scheduling Furman after the Paladins upset the Gamecocks 28-23 in 1982. Steve Spurrier’s squad has much more talent than its Southern Conference adversary, although Wofford has hung with the Gamecocks because of its triple-option offense.
Furman has no such gimmicks, and it has a new starting quarterback in UCLA transfer Chris Forcier. Barring turnovers, USC should build a big lead and give plenty of backups a chance to play.
Prediction: USC 38, Furman 10

Camp review: Good, bad and ugly

(A version of the following ran in Monday’s editions, but figured I’d include it here for reader comments on what the Gamecocks need to accomplish over the next 10 days.)
Preseason camp is over, classes have started, and South Carolina opens its season Sept. 2 against Southern Miss.
The State examines the highs and lows from preseason drills:
Offense
SETTLED: Where did all these receivers come from? USC was in good shape with Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley returning. But strong showings from freshman Ace Sanders and a number of redshirt freshmen have made this the Gamecocks’ deepest position. …
Freshman tailback Marcus Lattimore has lived up to his hype. The sturdy back runs hard, never begs out of a drill and has been surprisingly adept at pass-blocking, something he was seldom asked to do at Byrnes High. If he doesn’t start against Southern Miss, he will get the bulk of the carries.
UNSETTLED: It’s a little surprising Stephen Garcia hasn’t taken control of the quarterback battle. That might speak more to Connor Shaw’s abilities than anything Garcia has or hasn’t done, although Spurrier continues to question how much Garcia studies the playbook. …
First-year offensive line coach Shawn Elliott is beginning to see his unit gain confidence. And while the starting front five should be solid, injuries have hurt the line’s depth. …
Weslye Saunders’ performance Saturday (four catches for 63 yards and a TD) further demonstrated how critical the big tight end is to the offense. If the NCAA rules Saunders must sit more than a game, it would be a huge blow.
QUOTE: “We’ve got an excellent group of receivers that are running good routes. They catch about everything if they have a chance at it. We should have a good offense, but our quarterback play’s got to be good. And right now it’s not real good,” – Spurrier.
Defense
SETTLED: When discussing the daily battles with USC’s secondary, Jeffery reminded reporters the Gamecocks had one of the nation’s top pass defenses in 2009. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore is on a couple of preseason watch lists for national defensive awards, and Chris Culliver, the other corner, says he hopes quarterbacks will test him. …
Ellis Johnson, assistant head coach for defense, was concerned about where the pass rush would come from when Eric Norwood left. But the defense sacked Garcia five times in the opening scrimmage. Sophomore end Devin Taylor appears ready for a breakout year.
UNSETTLED: Linebacker Shaq Wilson, one of the cogs of the defense, has been sidelined nearly the entire preseason with a hamstring injury. Wilson, the team’s leading tackler in 2009, is shifting from the middle to Norwood’s weak-side spot. It is imperative Wilson return at full speed for the blitz schemes to be effective. …
Many of the second-teamers have not challenged the starters as much as Johnson would have liked. With no clear backup to DeVonte Holloman at strong safety, coaches are cross-training D.J. Swearinger at both safety spots.
QUOTE: “I’ve seen Shaq Wilson one-and-a-half practices. And when he’s not in there our (defensive) quarterback’s gone,” – Johnson.
Special teams
SETTLED: Spencer Lanning gives USC a reliable place-kicker and punter. The senior from Rock Hill is on the Groza Award watch list after making 17-of-20 field goals in 2009.
UNSETTLED: Special teams coordinator Shane Beamer believes the kickoff coverage will be better after struggling last season. But it’s hard to mimic game-speed special teams in practice without running the risk of injury.
QUOTE: “We don’t get to play four preseason games like those NFL teams do. … The first time you line up and cover a kick, it’s the first time you’ve done it for real. The first time you go out and kick a field goal, it’s the first time you’ve done it for real,” – Beamer.

Players pay up and leave local hotel

Thursday was moving day at South Carolina as a number of additional players moved out of the Whitney Hotel a week after NCAA investigators questioned their living arrangements there.
Tight end Weslye Saunders, whose alleged dealings with agents drew the attention of the NCAA, was one of the players told to vacate the property. Officials want to know whether players received free rooms or discounted rates at a hotel that features limousine service.
If so, that likely would constitute an extra benefit.
Spurrier said after Thursday’s scrimmage that players were asked to vacate the Whitney and settle any outstanding balances. Spurrier, who stayed at the hotel before he and his wife moved into their Columbia-area house in 2005, said he knew players were living at the Whitney but “didn’t know all the arrangements.”
“But all of our guys are going to pay their bill and hopefully go live somewhere else,” Spurrier said. “That’s what we hope happens – that they pay their bills up and go live somewhere else. That’s about all I can say about it.”
As many as seven to 10 players were staying at the hotel, located along the Devine Street shopping corridor. Sources said a couple of players were in good financial standing with the hotel but were asked to move out anyway.
Spurrier would not say specifically whether any players owed several months of back rent.
“I can’t go into all that,” Spurrier said. “They’re going to pay their bills and move out is what we have suggested to them to do.”
By having players pay off their balances and leave the hotel, it appears USC is trying to minimize potential penalties from the NCAA. If the school believes players were staying there at free or discounted rates, expect officials to self-report it as secondary violations and point to the fact that players have made restitution.
The NCAA can choose to accept the school’s findings or reject them. Given that both NCAA and USC officials have said they are working cooperatively on this investigation, there likely has been dialogue about the hotel situation and USC’s plans to remedy it.

QB battle heats up

Remember last spring when Steve Spurrier was calling out Stephen Garcia any chance he got while mentioning Connor Shaw as a viable backup quarterback who would push Garcia?
The armchair psychologists, this one included, surmised that Spurrier was trying to get in Garcia’s head to make sure the Tampa right-hander did not go through the motions again during the summer conditioning and passing drills.
Certainly, motivation was part of Spurrier’s message. But the part about Shaw being a legitimate option should Garcia falter?
That’s looking more accurate every time the Gamecocks scrimmage.
For the second consecutive scrimmage, the challenger outplayed the incumbent. And in the only vote that matters, Spurrier left the door wide open that Shaw, a true freshman and son of a football coach, could be the opening-game starter Sept. 2 when Southern Miss visits Columbia.
The fact that Shaw took the first snaps under center Thursday only added to the intrigue.
“Definitely Connor’s going to play in the first game,” Spurrier said. “Right now we’re planning on both of them playing and go from there. Statistically, he’s been the best quarterback on the team in every scrimmage. So that’s where we are with that.”
On the opening series, Shaw directed a five-play, 70-yards scoring drive that he capped with a 6-yard touchdown run. He book-ended his day with another TD drive, hitting freshman Nick Jones for a 17-yard scoring strike.
The highlight of the drive was a 53-yard toss to Kenny Miles on a play when Shaw scrambled to his right to avoid the pass rush. Shaw’s stat line: 5-of-8 for 111 yards and one TD; no picks.
Meanwhile, Garcia finished the day 11-of-16 for 113 yards. But he was picked off twice by safety Akeem Auguste.
Asked who would start the opener, Spurrier said he had two more weeks to make that decision. But he seemed to indicate that Shaw has the edge at this point.
“Well, like I said, Connor has outplayed him in the scrimmages,” he said. “We’ll see how it goes the next two weeks. Stephen may play the best. So we’ll see how it goes.”
Should be an interesting two weeks.

Scrimmage No. 1 a sack-fest

Not going to try to do any in-depth scrimmage analysis here, since South Carolina’s players already had their shoulder pads off and were finishing their conditioning by the time the media was allowed into Williams-Brice Stadium on Saturday.
But one stat jumped out from Steve Spurrier’s post-scrimmage debriefing:
Starting quarterback Stephen Garcia was sacked “about five times” in the 14-15 plays in which he dropped back to pass.
Yikes.
We don’t know whether Garcia played with the first-team offensive line the entire scrimmage, but it’s probably safe to assume he spent the bulk of his time with that unit. For the most part, it’s the same line Garcia played behind last season when he was sacked 37 times – an alarming number that tied LSU for most allowed in the SEC.
Now, to be fair, it should be pointed out that the Gamecocks’ offense was playing against a pretty good defense, one that has finished in the top 15 nationally in total defense each of the past two years.
But defensive chief Ellis Johnson didn’t sound all that impressed with his D on a hot day when the play on both sides of the ball was described as “sloppy” by both Johnson and Spurrier.
Garcia was 3-for-8 passing for 76 yards and a TD. His “rushing” numbers were six attempts for minus-23 yards. So if Spurrier’s math was right – the stats provided by the sports information department did not include sacks – that means Garcia ran for positive yardage just once.
When they weren’t on their backs, the quarterback trio combined to complete 22 of 33 passes for 325 yards and three TDs with no interceptions. But they were on their backs a lot.
Spurrier said backup QBs Connor Shaw and Andrew Clifford also were sacked “once or twice.”
After all the talk this week about the unproven depth on the offensive line, maybe the media was missing the more pressing question: Forget the backups, is the starting line going to be any better than the last couple of years?
That can’t be answered after just one scrimmage. The Gamecocks have two weeks to straighten things out before Southern Miss arrives.
But the abundance of what Spurrier calls “backward plays” in the first full scrimmage was not how the USC offense wanted to start.

Spurrier likes leadership on 2010 team

Steve Spurrier didn’t drop any bombshells, announce any big news or take any shots at Lane Kiffin on Sunday at South Carolina’s media day.
But it was an interesting half-hour or so, nonetheless.
The big buzz word for Spurrier on this day was accountability: players being accountable to one another, “coaches … trainers, equipment guys” – you get the point.
Spurrier said in past years the Gamecocks would routinely have four or five guys fail to show for mandatory breakfast. That was supposed to result in a punitive conditioning session on the Stairmaster.
The only problem: There were too many guilty players, not enough Stairmasters.
“We just had a heck of a mess,” Spurrier said.
By weeding out some bad apples and bringing in better ones, things have improved.
Through the first week of preseason drills, Spurrier said the Gamecocks had one player (freshman CB Victor Hampton) show up late for a meeting, which had been held at a different time in previous days.
“So one out of 105’s not too bad,” Spurrier said.
Someone also pointed out that Spurrier has not had to deal with the arrests that have plagued other SEC schools this offseason.
Spurrier’s response?
“They’re really just acting like they should. I don’t really think you should praise the guys for not getting arrested.”
Fair enough. And while Spurrier conceded that on-time arrivals at the breakfast bar do not guarantee success, he clearly is pleased with the attitude through the first week of practice.
He likes the senior leadership, and said he has “better recruiters” on this year’s staff evaluating talent.
Spurrier said these Gamecocks are “in position” to make some hay: They have the facilities to compete, the talent and players who are holding each other accountable.
Now, he said, they just have to win – and “win big.” …
Spurrier was asked about his decision to exclude QB Stephen Garcia from the cover of the media guide. He first mentioned having seniors on the cover until it was pointed out to him that sophomores Stephon Gilmore and Alshon Jeffery are among the five players featured on the cover.
“Maybe we thought Stephen didn’t belong on there. How’s that,” Spurrier said. “When he earns the right to get on there, we’ll put him on there.”

Day 5: Lattimore gets even

If Marcus Lattimore had his welcome-to-the-SEC moment during Thursday’s practice, the freshman tailback learned how sweet revenge can be during Saturday’s first full-pads practice.
Lattimore was knocked off his feet by safety D.J. Swearinger during a 7-on-7 (skeleton) drill Thursday, prompting a loud chorus of smack-talking from Swearinger’s defensive teammates.
On Saturday, Lattimore used all of his 6-foot frame and 218 pounds to exact a little payback.
Lattimore took a handoff, broke toward the goal line and didn’t let the fact that Swearinger was in his way stop him. The Parade All-American from Byrnes High bulled over the 5-11, 201-pound Swearinger – and this time it was the offense that was doing the celebrating.
Since neither player was available after practice, Steve Spurrier gave his rundown of the two biggest hits in the first week of preseason drills.
“D.J. said, ‘He got me, coach. I wasn’t quite ready for it.’ And I said, ‘Well, he wasn’t quite ready for yours the other day,’” Spurrier said. “He caught Marcus a little off-balance. Marcus went roaring up for the end zone and D.J., I don’t think, was expecting a full charge.”
“It was two good hits and no big deal and it’s all over with.”
There was no bad blood between the two players. But Saturday’s play could be the first big step in Lattimore’s transition from high school to the SEC.
And by the way, every day Kenny Miles continues to miss with a hamstring injury is another one when Lattimore is getting more carries than he would have otherwise. …
–Another group that took a step in the right direction Saturday – as opposed to going backward in 5-yard increments – was the offensive line.
Spurrier praised the group – or maybe it was damning with faint praise – for getting through the day without a false-start penalty after they were whistled for three in the first four plays of the team session Thursday.
“It might have been the first time we’ve had a complete practice without one of them false-starting,” he said. “So that was encouraging.” …
–The sight of defensive tackle Melvin Ingram limping off the field has become somewhat commonplace, so no one seemed too worried when Ingram hobbled off favoring his right foot. Spurrier said Ingram has a sprained ankle; it is not considered serious. …
–Left tackle Jarriel King (hamstring) returned to practice, but still had on a yellow jersey. Others in yellow: Miles, LBs Shaq Wilson and Qua Gilchrist and FB Matt Coffee. …
–USC will hold its media day Sunday, practice on Monday morning, and then hold its first scrimmage Tuesday morning. The remainder of the preseason practices are closed to the public, unless Spurrier decides differently.

USC coaches get their grades

South Carolina’s coaches had a pretty solid showing on the APR data for head coaches released by the NCAA on Thursday.
The NCAA has tracked APR (Academic Progress Rate) scores for schools since 2003-04, but this is the first time they have attached the data to specific coaches.
The idea is to make coaches more accountable, and create an online database to help recruits, administrators and the public keep tabs on how a coach stacks up academically. The scores will follow a coach who changes schools.
A perfect score is 1,000; teams scoring below 925 are subject to potential penalties. There are no penalties currently associated with the head coach APR scores, although the NCAA said it could do so in the future.
The first batch of single-year APR scores includes coaches from six sports: football, men’s and women’s basketball, baseball and women’s indoor and outdoor track. Next year’s data will include coaches from all sports.
As for the Gamecocks’ coaches, Steve Spurrier was above the average for Division I football teams in two of his first four full years at USC. Spurrier’s worst score was an 895 in 2004-05, when he had to boot several players and lost others to attrition after taking over for Lou Holtz.
Darrin Horn had an 848 in 2003-04 at Western Kentucky, but his only other year below 950 was 2007-08. That was another ‘lost in transition’ situation when the Gamecocks had a single-year APR of 917 as Horn replaced Dave Odom.

Second day observations, Garcia edition

Throwing from a distance of about 25 to 30 yards, it took Stephen Garcia only 10 tries to drop a spiral into a trash bucket Wednesday night long after most of the other position groups had cleared out.
That drill, performed with the team’s other quarterbacks, followed a new conditioning regimen in which players go through different stations at the close of practice.
Doing conditioning drills after a two hour-plus practice isn’t generally greeted with a lot of enthusiasm, whether you’re talking about a Pop Warner team or an SEC squad.
But USC players act like they’re enjoying the stations, or else they’re doing a good job faking it. Garcia complimented his teammates on all the “yelling and screaming” they did as they went through the drills.
It turns out they were taking a cue from their coach.
“Coach Spurrier said before (Tuesday) night’s practice he wants us to just have fun and be enthusiastic the whole night,” Garcia said.
Garcia seems to be having as much fun as anyone. After hearing and reading all spring about what Spurrier expected of him, Garcia met with his coach in May before the summer conditioning and passing workouts started.
Garcia said Spurrier told him the public comments were just a way to “light a fire” under him.
Garcia used that fire to help melt 10 pounds off his 6-2 frame, as he dropped to about 225 by running harder and cutting back on a certain adult beverage
“There’s a few things that I didn’t take. I’m sure you guys know what I’m talking about,” Garcia said. “You can edit that out if you want to.”
Beer bellies are out. New conditioning stations are in.
Sounds like a plan.

First practice observations

They say you never forget your first … practice?
At least Steve Spurrier hasn’t.
Surveying the Bluff Road practice fields Tuesday night, Spurrier spotted freshman WR and Tampa native Ace Sanders zipping through the defense and was reminded of O.J. Murdock, the highly-regarded Tampa WR in Spurrier’s first season at South Carolina.
Murdock never did much at USC and was gone after two years. He has taken a circuitous route to Division II Fort Hays State, where he plays football and runs track.
Spurrier is hopeful Sanders will be the next Kenny McKinley, and not the next Murdock. The 5-7, 166-pounder got off to a good start Tuesday, getting in and out of his routes quickly and turning heads in the skeleton and team drills.
Marcus Lattimore, whom Rivals ranked as the nation’s top tailback prospect, drew the loudest cheer of the night (a crowd of close to 1,000 turned out) when he caught a pass from Stephen Garcia along the sideline and went in for a score in the team portion of practice.
It’s tough to draw too many conclusions from one practice in shorts and helmets. Garcia had a pretty good night, but fluttered a deep pass toward D.L. Moore that Chris Culliver tipped and Antonio Allen picked off.
Defensive tackle Byron Jerideau, a junior college transfer, looked every bit as big as his listed height (6-0) and weight (339 pounds). That’s not necessarily a good thing.
The Gamecocks had a couple of JUCOs who showed up out of shape last summer, and neither has yet to make an impact. One of them – offensive lineman Rokevious Watkins – sat out Tuesday’s first practice with a stomach virus.
Guys like Watkins and No. 2 Ryan Broadhead need to have good camps or risk falling behind the freshman linemen – Ronald Patrick, A.J. Cann and Tramell Williams – who Spurrier keeps raving about.

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